Section 117 – Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.

The next popular uprising in Iran will likely overthrow the aging, authoritarian clerics in Tehran.

“God would never wrong them, but they wrong themselves.” -The Qur’an, 29:39

In less than two years Iran’s theocracy has lost a key ally in Syria and seen its proxies in the Middle East decisively weakened. Russia, its traditional major backer, is increasingly distracted by its disastrous war in Ukraine. Over a decade of sanctions has eroded Iran’s economy, while the recent conflict with Israel has significantly eroded its military and security forces. On the home front the clerics are increasingly hated, and significant protests and dissident movements keep popping up almost yearly.

Iran’s theocratic regime, that sponsors terorrism abroad and has been an implacable enemy of America and Israel for decades, has never been weaker. With its increased diplomatic isolation, the weakening of its military and security apparatus, and deteriorating credibility among the people, it’s likely the next major domestic uprising will topple it.

With Friends like These (Russia and Syria)

Article content — Syria: The historic fall of the Al-Assad regime, Thiago.

“There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” -Winston Churchill

Iran’s traditional allies, Syria and Russia, can no longer be relied upon to help it when needed.

Former President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian dictatorship was a loyal client state of Tehran and its bridge to Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran’s main proxies against Israel. Unfortunately for Iran, Assad’s increasingly cruel, corrupt, and incompetent rule, imploded quickly in December 2024.

After 14 years of civil war and economic ruin, 600,000 dead, 7 million refugees, and 7 million internally displaced citizens, the Assad Dynasty fell in less than 14 days. The Syrian Army, with 170,000 soldiers on paper, disintegrated against a force of 15,000 lightly armed rebel forces, that advanced from Aleppo to Damascus. Assad fled to Moscow to live in luxurious exile, ending his family’s 54-year tyrannical reign. The swift collapse of Syria’s regime has unsettled dictators from Iran, Venezuela, to Russia, where Putin’s regime was nearly toppled by his former cook, turned mercenary, in 48 hours in June 2023. The loss of its Syrian ally has furthered Iran’s isolation in the Middle East and reduced its ability to support Hezbollah and Hamas.

Russia, Iran’s other key ally, is also in a poor position to support it. While the Russians have given Tehran nuclear technology, air defense systems, and military hardware for decades, Putin has increasingly had to rely upon Iran instead. The Iranians have given Russia countless Shahed drones to blow up Ukrainian cities and helped Moscow evade economic sanctions. Besides this, Russian military losses, economic difficulties, and demographic issues are hollowing out Putin’s regime, making it less able to come to Iran’s aid.

For instance, the Russian economy has weathered the last three years, but its position is quickly deteriorating. Since the war began Russia has become the most sanctioned country in the world. Interest rates have climbed to 20%, inflation hovers between 10%-15%, and oil and gas revenues are down 35% from last May. Russia could also run out of liquid reserves to convert into money by the end of 2025. Since late 2024 Russia lacks 2.7 million workers, exacerbated by a million Russians fleeing the nation since the war began, including brain drain via young professionals.

In fact, the only growth has been in the military sector, thanks to massive expansion in military industrial production and a $130 billion-dollar defence budget, a third of Russia’s total spending in 2025. Such statistics and focus on the war effort have gutted the civilian economy. Food prices in Russia this year could rise by 20%, 70% of Russian businesses have been hurt by sanctions, and personal bankruptcies have increased by 33%. A mere 10% of Russians state their financial situation has gotten better this year.

Similar circumstances led to the fall of the Soviet Union and could lead to the collapse of Putin’s regime. As Alexander Motyl has written, “Russia’s war economy is a house of cards,” and he predicts a “Russian economic meltdown is coming next year.” Motyl also suggested “Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union should have taught Putin a lesson,” and that “the decrepit Soviet economy couldn’t support Brezhnev’s military expenditure. If Russia’s economy collapses, so too will the military and the war.”

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Turning to the Ukraine War, Russia has suffered 1,000,000 casualties in three years, more than 15 times the amount it took in the 10-year war in Afghanistan (1979-1989). According to Oryx, that documents visually confirmed military losses, Russia has lost over 4000 tanks, 8000 armoured and infantry fighting vehicles, 2000 artillery pieces and multiple rocket-launchers, and 300 aircraft. In the Black Sea it has lost a third of its fleet, against a navy that barely exists.

The attrition of military hardware is so heavy Russia’s increasingly taxed war industry isn’t close to replacing its losses. To quote the Institute for the Study of War “Russia is not producing enough military equipment in order to train its vast numbers of new troops given its high fatality rate. High interest rates and bureaucratic issues are hindering Russia’s ability to scale up its weapons production.” The ISW also said Russia is “losing vehicles at an unsustainable rate in the past two years, without the industrial capacity to make up for the scale of losses.” No wonder Putin relies on Iran for drones, North Korea for shells, and China for dual-use goods.

Russia’s demographic issues, like a declining population since the 1990s and a million men fleeing the country since the invasion of Ukraine, is slowly dooming its war effort. That’s unless more of the millions of men in Moscow and St. Petersburg start signing up, instead of Putin relying on cash bonuses and the desperation of poor Russians on the other side of the Urals, to feed his meat grinder each month. However, the relatively better off Russians in St. Petersburg and Moscow, especially the sons of elites and oligarchs, are better at shouting slogans instead of fighting in the trenches.

Either way, Russian casualties, lop-sided emigration, and low birth rates will only exacerbate Russia’s worsening demographic situation. Numbers vary by sources but from 144 million today Russia’s population could decline to 135 million, or as little as 120 million, by 2050.

With Russia’s demographic, military, and economic woes, it’s not only increasingly unlikely it could send enough aid to save Iran’s aging Mullahs when they need it, but that Putin could lose power before they do. Given it seemed for a time Putin would be overthrown by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former (now deceased) leader of the Wagner Group, during his abortive march on Moscow in 2023, this isn’t a remote possibility.

Tehran’s Decimated Proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas)

“Israel is weaker than a spider’s web.” -former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by Israel in September, 2024

Iran’s main proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have been decisively weakened since Hamas’s cruel atrocities against Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023. Whatever strategic results Iran and Hamas wanted by starting the war, it’s hard to think they achieved them and certainly not at the price they, and especially innocent Palestinians civilians, have suffered. Instead, Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran’s swords against Israel, have seen their blades shattered and capabilities devastated.

Hamas’s organization and leadership has been devastated by nearly 21 months of war. Besides Gaza being shattered, 100s of 1000s of its citizens herded up and down the strip as refugees, and 10s of thousands of deaths, what has Hamas gained for its movement or the Palestinians? It’s true Israel, under the hawkish, right wing, and ultra-religious government of Netanyahu, hasn’t been a beacon of peace, moderation, restraint, and humanitarianism. But Hamas, an islamic fundamentalist movement and terrorist organization, that openly calls for the destruction of the Israeli state, has consistently undermined the Palestinian cause.

By refusing, since its creation, to recognize or negotiate with Israel, and sabotaging the Oslo peace process in the 1990s, Hamas has failed to gain concessions from Israel or improve the odds of Palestinian statehood. Despite starting or provoking major clashes with Israel in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, 2021, and 2023, it hasn’t come any closer to destroying Israel. Nor has Hamas inflicted significant casualties on the Israelis since October 7, 2023 (most of its rocket and terror attacks failing spectacularly). Instead, up to 60,000 Palestinians have been killed versus perhaps 2000 Israelis, including those killed on October 7th.

Thus, Hamas has only brought down death, destruction, and humanitarian disaster upon the citizens of Gaza. It’s true Israel has also committed too many war crimes and wrongs against the Palestinian people. However, Hamas, that had less than 40% of support among its people when the war began, isn’t a responsible government for the Palestinians or a credible partner for any realistic peace process. Having been defanged by Israel, undermined at home, and isolated abroad, Hamas’s strategic value to Iran is now highly dubious.

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Hezbollah was seen as Israel’s most competent enemy during the past few decades, with some reason. It slowly bled Israel for years in South Lebanon, survived two Israeli bombing campaigns in the 1990s, and outlasted Israel in Lebanon, which evacuated it in 2000. Hezbollah performed well in the Second Lebanon War in 2006, arguably humiliating Israel, and vastly increased its missile stocks in the years afterwards. Its impressive record and capabilities convinced many experts and pundits the next war between Hezbollah and Israel would see widespread death and destruction rain down on Israeli cities.

Instead, Israel, whatever its flaws, learns from past wars and had carefully prepared for the latest showdown with Hezbollah. On September 17, 2024, pagers across Lebanon blew up, killing and wounding scores of Hezbollah’s rank and file. A day later the same happened with walkie-talkies, inflicting more losses on the organization. Ten days later Hezbollah’s leader since 1992, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike. A week later his designated successor was taken out as well. Clearly, Israeli intelligence had infiltrated Hezbollah’s organization and supply chain, and in a month had decapitated its leadership and weakened its forces.

Israel’s defeat of Hamas’s and Hezbollah’s military capabilities has been decisive and has safeguarded the Israeli home front since October 7, 2023. It has also limited Iran’s ability to pressure Israel and America. Perhaps showing how little Tehran is able, or willing, to help its proxies, Iran’s only intervention were two substantial, but limited missile barrages launched against Israel. These were telegraphed to Israel in advance and conducted in a way to save face for the Iranian regime but avoid civilian casualties to not provoke a violent Israeli retaliation.

Indeed, the Israeli response was limited to hitting an advanced Russian air defence unit guarding Iran’s Natanz nuclear site in April 2024, along with more widespread attacks against Iranian targets in October. This was done with ease and in hindsight foreshadowed Israel’s ability to overwhelm Iran’s air defense, which on paper was formidable. The consequences would become apparent during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June 2025.

Iran is Exposed as a Paper Tiger

“Its (Israel’s) attack against Iran achieved undeniable military success in damaging Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, and it demonstrated deep intelligence penetration through its brazen killing of Iran’s top military leadership and nuclear scientists.” -Dalia Dassa Kaye

Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, with proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, significant missile stocks, and the ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, has often been seen as a major threat to Israel, America, and the Arab States. Throw in its nuclear program and Iran makes the short list of nations like Russia, China, and North Korea, that threaten the international rules-based order.

Think tanks and experts have conducted war games and considered many scenarios regarding potential wars between Iran and its enemies. These have often predicted lengthy conflicts, heavy casualties on both sides, and even the destruction of significant U.S. forces in the Gulf. In one notable but controversial war game, Millennium Challenge 2002, Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, who played Iran, used asymmetrical methods to sink a whole U.S. carrier battle group. However, like the gross exaggeration of Russian capabilities before it invaded Ukraine, or Hezbollah’s ability to pummel Israeli cities, Iran’s military and security apparatus have been exposed as weak and ineffective.

In the 12-day war in June, Israel, a country with no oil and a population 1/10th of Iran’s, overwhelmed the Iranian military, humiliating a nation with 90,000,000 people and 25% of the Middle East’s oil reserves. Not since the Israeli surprise attack in 1967 that destroyed Egypt’s Airforce on the ground, has one of Israel’s enemies suffered such a shocking defeat.

As already noted, the Israelis, in response to Iran’s symbolic missile barrage in April 2024, knocked out an Iranian air defense radar site near Natanz, one of its key nuclear sites. Like the destruction of Syria’s advanced SAM defense system in the Bekaa valley in 1982, this showed Iran’s Russian-supplied air defense units were overrated. It was a foreshadow of what occurred in the skies over Iran in June 2025.

Indeed, once Israel began its preventive war it quickly defeated Iran’s aerial defense network and gained aerial supremacy. Over 80 Iranian surface-to-air batteries were taken out after their radars were blinded. This included advanced Russian systems, that while impressive on paper, failed against the Israelis as they have against the Ukrainians. Iran’s warplanes, outclassed by the Israeli Air force, stayed out of the fight. Iranian air defense batteries and aircraft didn’t shoot down a single Israeli jet in 12 days.

This allowed 200 Israeli warplanes, with the help of commandos and Mossad agents, to strike targets across Iran. This included ballistic missile stocks and launchers, airbases and drone hubs, nuclear facilities, and Iran’s leadership. It’s hard to confirm figures but Israel’s Airforce may have hit more than 100 military and nuclear facilities, with 100s of guided munitions, in perhaps 1000 aerial sorties, supported by 600 aerial refueling operations.

Israel’s preventive war has significantly weakened Iran’s military and security capabilities, assassinated many of its leaders and nuclear scientists, and degraded its nuclear program. Besides the destruction of 80 air defense batteries Israel may have taken out 250-300 missile launchers, 65-75% of Iran’s estimated stocks. The IAF might have also eliminated 1000 ballistic missiles, out of an estimated 2500.

Up to 30 of Iran’s top military and security leaders and 15 of its nuclear scientists were assassinated. This included the Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the IRGC’s air force commander and its chief of intelligence, and the former head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization. As with Hezbollah, it’s obvious Mossad compromised Iran’s security services, had moles placed throughout the Iranian regime, and Iran’s remaining leadership likely haven’t slept well since June.

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As already stated, despite prior calculations and worse case scenarios offered by experts, Iran and its proxies didn’t spread death and destruction across the region during 12 days of conflict. In fact, Iranian proxies sat out the war, just as Iran didn’t help Hamas and Hezbollah when Israel was pummeling them. Hezbollah didn’t launch a single rocket at Israel while the Houthis, Iran’s proxy in Yemen, launched only two at the Jewish state.

The Iranian regime tried retaliating against Israel, but its efforts were mostly futile. Iran launched 1000 drones and 500 ballistic missiles, mostly at Israeli cities, but 80-90% were intercepted. This, along with Israel’s safety precautions limited Israeli casualties. However, Israel still paid a price with 29 dead, over 3200 wounded (mostly light), and 18,000 residents temporarily displaced. But this was a far cry from doomsday predictions of rockets and missiles fired from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iranian proxies in Iraq, and Iran devastating Jerusalem, Tel-Aviv, and Haifa.

Instead, the Iranian regime and unfortunately its civilian population, paid a higher price. As previously noted, Iran lost 30 senior leaders and 15 scientists, more individuals than total Israeli fatalities. Iran’s ministry of health suggests at least 600 civilians were killed and 4700 injured in the war. HRANA, a non-governmental organization of advocates who defend human rights in Iran, estimates the conflict killed at least 1000 Iranians, mostly civilian, and injured 4500. Apparently, the war also temporarily displaced millions of Iranians, who fled bigger cities. While it’s questionable if Al-Jazeera’s figure of 9 million (10% of Iran’s population) is accurate, there’s no doubt the Iranian home front was severely dislocated during the two week conflict.

Worries about an expanding conflict that would drag in America and its allies in the Gulf were also ill-founded, even after U.S. strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites. Instead, Iran’s theocratic regime, that had already lost many leaders and military assets, launched a symbolic attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, America’s main airbase in the region. Tellingly, Iran gave America prior warning, with President Trump ironically thanking it publicly for the chance to evacuate personnel and aircraft.

In what Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who spent the war in a bunker, called “Operation Annunciation of Victory,” 14 missiles targeted the airfield, most were intercepted, and no casualties were reported. However, one missile got through and damaged a dome used for U.S. communications. This, along with America refusing to retaliate, allowed Khamenei to save face and declare Iran had “delivered a heavy slap to the face of America.” A ceasefire ended the war the next day on June 24, 2025.

The Fate of Iran’s Nuclear Program

“Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!” -President Trump

Of course, the fundamental question is how much Israel’s aerial campaign and America’s precision strikes damaged Iran’s nuclear program. After all, the primary objective of Israel’s preventive war was to quash Iran’s supposed quest to acquire nuclear weapons. On one hand many experts have pointed out Iran has enriched Uranium to a point past obvious civilian uses, impeded international observers from checking nuclear sites, and improved its ballistic missile capabilities. On the other hand, credible sources have pointed out there’s no unequivocal proof Iran’s leadership is committed to obtaining nuclear weapons.

However, from a cold geopolitical perspective it makes sense for a rogue state like Iran to acquire nuclear bombs. Nuclear weapons give states, even relatively weak ones like North Korea, protection and deterrence against even a superpower like America. There’s little doubt if Saddam Hussein had nukes America would never have invaded Iraq. Likewise, while Russia’s army in Ukraine has performed well below expectations, Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling has guaranteed NATO has only increased aid to Ukraine incrementally. For Iran, nuclear weapons would protect it from American and Israeli military power and give it more leverage to support its proxies and goals to expand its influence across the Middle East.

Regardless, it’s unclear how much Israeli and American strikes have undermined Iran’s nuclear program. There’s no doubt Israeli missiles and especially American bunker-buster bombs hitting Iranian nuclear sites, hurt Iran’s nuclear capabilities. It’s unlikely key facilities including Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, that were hit by 14 American 30,000 pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, haven’t suffered significant or even critical damage.

But how much was the Iranian nuclear program really set back? Sources have varied widely on their estimates. Unsurprisingly, the Israeli military suggests the war delayed Iran’s efforts by years. At first, American intelligence implied it was only delayed by months, but the Pentagon soon echoed Israel’s optimistic prediction. The International Atomic Energy Agency and other organizations have stated the program has only been hindered by months.

Only time will tell the truth, but many questions remain. Will Iran’s remaining leadership double-down on its quest for nukes, or return to serious negotiations regarding its nuclear program? Would Israel just launch another aerial campaign again if it believes Iran gets close to acquiring nukes and how successful would it be? Even if Iran built nuclear weapons how much would this strengthen the Iranian regime and its future stability?

Iran can tighten internal security, decentralize its nuclear program even more, and continue its quest for nuclear weapons indefinitely. But Iran’s restive and impoverished people pose an increasingly mortal threat to the clerics in Tehran. Nuclear weapons can deter America, Israel, and the Arab states, but they can’t solve Iran’s internal contradictions. Having nuclear weapons didn’t stop the collapse of the Soviet Union or prevent Chinese students from threatening the CCP’s rule in 1989 at Tiananmen Square.

In fact, the Israeli state has long betted on the overthrow of the Mullahs by the Iranian people to deal with its nemesis in Tehran. This may have been, at least partially, what Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser, meant by the following: “We severely downgraded the Iranian [nuclear] program. Maybe we didn’t eliminate it, but … we bought time. And that’s what it’s always been about with the Iranian nuclear program: gaining time.” For America, Israel, and the Arab states the crucial question is if the Iranian regime will be overthrown before it acquires nuclear weapons.

The People of Iran: The Biggest Threat to the Iranian Theocracy

“This is not a protest anymore, this is a revolution, in Iran. And the people of the world have to see it.” -Shakib Lolo, on the Mahsa Amini protests

One thing political parties in democratic nations and authoritarian regimes have in common is that ultimately all politics are local. While there are occasional foreign threats to their political survival, politicians are mostly unseated by their own people. In functional democracies this is done peacefully by elections, and even politicians who have engaged in criminal acts rarely face legal consequences.

But in dictatorships, political leaders are often jailed, forced into exile, or murdered. The past 20 years in the Middle East show no lack of examples. Saddam Hussein in Iraq was tried and hung by his own people, while Gaddafi in Libya was found by insurgents and brutally executed. Some leaders, like Bashar Al-Assad in Syria and Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan, fled into exile when rebel forces suddenly overran their brittle regimes. Other rulers were removed from power after large protests in the Arab Spring, including Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen.

Iran isn’t immune from historical forces, and every citizen knows of the CIA/MI6 backed coup in 1953, that removed Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh from power. Iranians, especially the aging ruling clerics, remember how the Shah of Iran, who replaced Mosaddegh, fled Tehran after losing the support of the army and people in 1979. Undoubtably, the Iranian theocracy fears its restive people more than anything else, as most dictatorships do.

As Barry Rubin noted, Middle Eastern regimes spend more resources to prevent coups and popular uprisings, than preparing their armies for foreign wars. This explains why dictators across the region are better at oppressing their peoples versus waging modern conventional warfare. Kenneth Pollack has produced the best works on the history and causes of these regimes’ military incompetence, in books like Arabs at War (2002) and Armies of Sand (2018).

Either way, a brief overview of the military history of the region since 1948 supports these arguments:

The poor performance of Arab armies in the Arab-Israeli Wars and against fellow Arab states. How America easily defeated the Iraqi Army, the fourth largest in the world, in 1991 and then crushed it in 2003 in three weeks. The subpar conduct of both sides in the long Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), that changed no borders but caused 1,000,000 casualties. The recent humiliation of Iran’s military by Israeli airpower in the recent 12-day war.

To be fair, insurgent and terrorist groups, backed by Arab regimes and Iran, have been more successful at fighting Israel, America, and Russia. Hezbollah outlasted Israel in Lebanon, the Mujahideen and Taliban did the same to Russia and America in Afghanistan, and America’s eight-year occupation of Iraq was a Pyrrhic victory… at best.

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But high profile conventional wars and insurgencies against foreign powers aren’t relevant to the current situation with Iran. Because it won’t be America or Israel that implodes Iran’s theocracy.

Like the fall of the Shah’s corrupt regime in 1979, it will be a popular uprising that dethrones the oppressive clerics in Tehran. The Islamic Republic of Iran has itself suffered many dissident and protest movements during its 45-year existence, especially since 1999.

In 1999 and 2003 there were strong student protests over government censorship, the disqualification of reformist candidates in elections, and the desire for more democratic rights. In 2009-2010 widespread protests broke out after the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with allegations of electoral fraud. Millions of Iranians in at least 10 big cities demanded more fairness and transparency for elections, and asked for democratic rights promised in the 1979 revolution.

There’s been many protest movements (2011-2012, 2017-2018, 2019-2020, 2022) about affordability, the regime’s corruption, and its mismanagement of the economy. Issues have ranged from the effects of western sanctions, food and gas prices, living standards and inflation, etc. There’s also been unique events like 20,000 people protesting at the tomb of Cyrus the Great in 2016, demanding regime change. Or the big protests in Tehran in January 2020, after Iran accidentally shot down a passenger plane. The government initially tried covering it up, leading to protests demanding transparency and accountability.

In most of these cases the regime responded with oppression, detentions, violence, and bloodshed. Besides occasional token concessions the ruling clerics never enacted serious political or democratic reforms or caved to meaningful demands.

However, the gravest threat to Iran’s theocracy was the Mahsa Amini protests and the related Women, Life, Freedom movement (2022-2023). The catalyst was the death of Mahsa Amini, aged 22, who died in police custody after being arrested for not complying with mandatory hijab laws. Built up resentment and outrage resulted in major protests across all of Iran’s 31 provinces, and more than 100 universities and cities. While many protests only involved dozens or 100s of people, making them easier to suppress, 100s of 1000s, even a million Iranians, participated. Demands ranged from improving women’s rights and gender equality, political reform, and increasingly an end to the Mullah’s authoritarian rule.

Ultimately, the protests failed due to harsh government crackdowns and the failure of the outside world to help the dissidents. But while the clerics in Tehran suppressed another threat to their rule, they didn’t neutralize the underlying causes and symptoms that fuel protest movements that keep cropping up, like a game of perpetual Whac-A-Mole. Because two years after the death of Mahsa Amini much has changed in the Middle East and Iran, to the disadvantage of the Iranian regime.

The Days for the Mullahs in Tehran are Numbered

“You in the West have been sold the idea that the only options in the Arab World are between authoritarian regimes and Islamic jihadists. That’s obviously bogus.” -Mohamed ElBaradei

Iran’s theocratic authoritarian regime has never been weaker, and the next significant domestic uprising will probably overthrow it.

With the fall of the Assad Dynasty Iran lost its closest ally. As Russia becomes more bogged down in Ukraine it will be increasingly hard pressed to prop up the Iranian Regime. Israel’s decisive military defeat of Hamas and especially Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxies, has weakened Tehran’s ability to coerce Israel and advance its regional goals. It’s questionable how much Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by the recent 12-day war. However, it’s obvious the conflict severely eroded the Iranian regime’s military and security services and eliminated much of its leadership. This doesn’t bode well for an unpopular theocracy that has seen increased domestic upheaval over the past 15 years.

All of this has weakened Iran’s position in the region, humiliated the clerics in front of the Iranian people, and most crucially, undermined the regime’s ability to survive the next major dissidence movement. Because history, not least of all in the Middle East, is full of war and revolution. The question is what comes first, a second Iran-Israeli War, or a Second Iranian Revolution?

Sources:

Boot, Max. Invisible Armies: An Epic History of Guerrilla Warfare from Ancient Times to the Present. New York: Liveright Publishing Corporation, 2013.

Bregman, Ahron. Israel’s Wars: A history since 1947. London: Routledge, 2016.

Pollack, Kenneth. Arabs at War: Military Effectiveness, 1948-1991. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2002.

Rubin, Barry. Conflict and Insurgency in the Contemporary Middle East. New York: Routledge, 2009.

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