The collapse of the Assad Regime will have major geopolitical implications.
Russia just lost its biggest ally in the Middle East and may lose its only overseas naval base. This will undermine its power in the region and Africa, and Putin’s regime at home. Iran lost its main ally and supply corridor to Hizbillah and Hamas. This will also undermine its ability to influence the region and pressure Israel. Hizbillah and Hamas have lost a critical supplier of money and weapons. After the last year of being hit hard by Israel they have lost a key ally and are more isolated from Iran.
The fall of Assad is bad for these rogue states and terrorist groups.
Meanwhile, Israel has lost its longest-running enemy. This will give it more power to undermine and degrade Hizbillah and Hamas. The world has also lost one of its worse rogue states. While people lament the waning influence of liberal democracy and rules-based order, they forget democracies are still more numerous and powerful than the handful of pariah states. There is little doubt rulers in Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been sleeping less well recently.
Finally, the Syrian people lost a brutal regime that oppressed them for 53 years. Assad’s regime used chemical weapons against its citizens, imprisoned and tortured 10s of 1000s, and killed over 100s of 1000s of its people. It had more blood on its hand than any current regime and terrorist group in the Middle East.
So far, the fall of Assad has been good for Israel, the world, and the Syrian people.
But everyone is asking WHAT HAPPENS now?
Will the new power-brokers in Damascus have positive relations with its neighbors, Israel, and the West, or will provoke more conflict in the region?
Will the rebels (HTS), who claim they are moderate and will not oppress minorities, keep their word, or is this window dressing until the world loses interest?
Will they be able to work with the other factions in Syria and rebuild the country, or will things only get worse?
What if things do get worse? Will the new regime turn to repression at home and interventions abroad (against Israel & the West) to distract its people and keep them in check? Because this has often been the case when new governments emerge after the collapse of an unpopular, brutal regime.
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We have seen the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 lead to the rise of Theocratic Iran. We saw the Taliban take over Afghanistan (again) in 2021 and falsely claim they would respect minorities. The fall of Mubarak in the Arab Spring did not lead to more freedom and democracy for the Egyptian people. The Islamic State did not bring prosperity and stability to the areas they overran in Iraq and Syria. The list is long and depressing.
Yet despite valid concerns and historical precedents, perhaps we can have some cautious optimism. Not everything that has happened before has to happen again. While the HTS group was an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, it splintered off and fought ISIS. While it is a Salifi, Islamic group, it has governed its region in Syria relatively moderately. Thus far, it has also refrained from vindictive revenge against former regime officials, and shown consideration to Syrian minorities. It has pledged not to interfere in other nations’ affairs.
Maybe much of this has been exaggerated and perhaps being hopeful is wishful thinking. But it is possible after 14 years of civil war, 600,000 dead, millions of refugees, widespread atrocities and the use of chemical weapons, the Syrian people are exhausted of conflict. Hopefully, the rebels are also tired and will respect the will of Syrians.
If the new power-brokers in Damascus put practical considerations over ideology maybe there is a chance for peace. If they can reassure neighbors, Israel and the West, perhaps positive relations can begin. If they are tolerant of minorities, improve the lives of Syrians, and work with other groups in Syria, maybe the nation can stabilize.
These are tall orders and many governments and experts are rightly skeptical. But for now millions of Syrians at home and abroad are celebrating, returning home, and have hope for the future.
While it is understandable for countries like America and Canada to say they should stay out of the mess in Syria, that may not be wise. This is not to advocate using military power but to try earnest means to work with a new Syrian government. Having mostly hands off polices after the Arab Spring broke out in 2011 did not stop millions of Syrians fleeing to Europe, for violence to spread to Iraq, or the rise of the Islamic State.
Instead, it let Putin and Iran take the initiative and mold the situation in Syria for their cynical ends. It also allowed the worst regime in modern middle eastern history to cling to power for another decade.
It remains to be seen if a new government in Syria will be stable, moderate, and peaceful. However, it may be in the interest of America, Europe, and Israel to work with it and offer humanitarian aid and help for reconstruction. Rather than shortsighted means like launching dozens of airstrikes in Syria (as Israel and America have done since the fall of Assad) for temporary tactical gains, they should consider the long game.
Despite the risks there is much more to lose by not at least trying to court a new Syrian government: Like 10 more years of civil war in Syria and the chance of rogue states like Russia and Iran reentering Syria to shape its future.